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The Relationship between Private Sector Credits and Economic Growth in Turkey: 1998-2020

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 56 - 70, 30.06.2021
https://doi.org/10.33905/bseusbed.910446

Öz

In this study, the effect of credits to the private sector to the economic growth in Turkey is investigated by using internal and external macroeconomic determinants of economic growth. The study utilizes the variables of credits to the private sector (CREDIT), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), general government final consumption expenditure (GFCE), real effective exchange rate (REER), interest rate (INTR), capital inflows (CAPFLOWS), total factor productivity (TFP) as the domestic macroeconomic variables, and global economic policy uncertainty index (GEPU) as the external factor that affect the economic growth in Turkey. The ARDL approach over the period of 1998:Q1 to 2020:Q1 is applied for the estimations. The study results show that the effects of the changes in domestic and external variables on economic growth are significant with expected signs. The empirical results confirmed that CREDIT and GFCF have a positive effect on growth, whereas GFCE, LREER, CAPFLOWS, and TFP variables have negative effect on growth. In the short term, the effects of the current and lagged values of the variables differ.

Kaynakça

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  • Ahmed, S., & Zlate, A. (2014). Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 48, 221-248.
  • Alesina, A. & Ardagna, S. (2010). Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending, Tax Policy and the Economy, 24(1), 35–68.
  • Alloza, M. (2014). Is Fiscal Policy More Effective in Uncertain Times or During Recessions? Discussion Papers, 1631, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
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Türkiye'de Özel Sektöre Sağlanan Kredilerle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: 1998-2020

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 56 - 70, 30.06.2021
https://doi.org/10.33905/bseusbed.910446

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de özel sektöre sağlanan kredilerin (CREDIT) ekonomik büyümeye etkileri, ekonomik büyümenin iç ve dış makroekonomik belirleyicileri kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Çalışmada 1998: Q1 - 2020: Q1 dönemini kapsayan veriler kullanılarak özel sektöre sağlanan krediler (CREDIT), brüt sabit sermaye oluşumu (GFCF), genel devlet nihai tüketim harcamaları (GFCE), reel efektif döviz kuru (REER), faiz oranı (INTR), sermaye girişleri (CAPFLOWS), toplam faktör verimliliği (TFP) ve küresel ekonomi politika belirsizlik endeksinin (GEPU) ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki kısa ve uzun vadeli etkileri ARDL yöntemi ile analiz edilmektedir. Çalışma sonuçları, yurtiçi ve yurt dışı değişkenlerindeki değişimlerin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin beklenen işaretlerle önemli ölçüde uyumlu olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlara göre, uzun vadede CREDIT ve GFCF değişkenlerinin pozitif, GFCE, LREER, CAPFLOWS, TFP değişkenlerinin büyüme üzerinde negatif etkiye sahip olduğu görülmüştür. Kısa vadede ise değişkenleri cari ve gecikmeli değerlerinin etkileri farklılaşmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Abramovitz, M. (1956). Resource and output trends in the United States since 1870. In Resource and output trends in the United States since 1870 (pp. 1-23). NBER.
  • Acikgoz, S.,& Mert, M. (2014). Sources of Growth Revisited: The Importance of the Nature of Technological Progress, Journal of Applied Economics, 17(1), 31-62.
  • Adak M. (2009). Total factor productıvıty and economıc growth. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(15), 49-56.
  • Adom, P. K., Bekoe, W., & Akoena, S. K. K. (2012). Modelling aggregate domestic electricity demand in Ghana: An autoregressive distributed lag bounds cointegration approach. Energy policy, 42, 530-537.
  • Afonso, A., Baxa, J.,& Slavik, M. (2018). Fiscal Developments and Financial Stress: A Threshold VAR Analysis, Empirical Economics, 54(2), 395-423.
  • Aghion, P., Angeletos, G.-M., Banerjee, A., & Kalina Manova. (2010). Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment. Journal of Monetary Economics, 57 (3), 246-265.
  • Aghion, P., Hemous, D.,& Kharroubi, E. (2009). Credit Constraints, Cyclical Fiscal Policy and Industry Growth, National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. 15119, 1-76.
  • Aghion, P., Howitt, P., & Mayer-Foulkes, D. (2005). The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120 (1), 173-222.
  • Ahmed, S., & Zlate, A. (2014). Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 48, 221-248.
  • Alesina, A. & Ardagna, S. (2010). Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending, Tax Policy and the Economy, 24(1), 35–68.
  • Alloza, M. (2014). Is Fiscal Policy More Effective in Uncertain Times or During Recessions? Discussion Papers, 1631, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  • Anyanwu, J. C. (2014). Factors Affecting Economic Growth in Africa: Are there any lessons from China?,African Development Review, 26(3), 468-493.
  • Araujo, J.T., Brueckner, M., Clavijo, M., Vostroknutova, E.,& Wacker, K.M. (2014). Benchmarking the Determinants of Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, Report No. 91015-LAC, Macroeconomics and Fiscal Policy Management Latin America and the Caribbean Region, The World Bank, 1-96.
  • Asheghian, P. (2009). Determinants of Economic Growth in Japan: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment, Global Economy Journal, 9(3), 1-9.
  • Bagehot, W. (1873). Lombard Street: A description of the money market, London: Scribner, Armstrong & Company.
  • Baier, S. L., Dwyer Jr, G. P., & Tamura, R. (2006). How important are capital and total factor productivity for economic growth?, Economic Inquiry, 44(1), 23-49.
  • Baker, S., Bloom N., & Davis, S.J. (2016). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.
  • Baker, S., Bloom, N., Davis, S.J., & Sammon, M. (2018). What Triggers Stock Market Jumps? Work in progress, presented at Jan. 7th, 2018. Chicagobooth.
  • Barro, R. J. (1999). Determinants of Economic Growth: Implications of the Global Evidence for Chile, Cuadernos de Economia, 36(107), 443-478.
  • Barro, R.J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1992). Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth, The Review of Economic Studies, 59(4), 645-661.
  • Barro, R.J. (1991). Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries, TheQuarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407-443.
  • Bayraktar, B. (2006). Investigation on Sources of Growth for Turkey, Canadian Journal of DevelopmentStudies, 27(1), 25-38.
  • Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2004). Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 28 (3), 423-442.
  • Beck, T., Levine, R., & Loayza, N. (2000). Finance and the sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 58 (1-2), 261-300.
  • Bekhet, H. A., Yasmin, T., & Al-Smadi, R. W. (2017). Dynamic linkages among financial development, economic growth, energy consumption, CO2 emissions and gross fixed capital formation patterns in Malaysia. International Journal of Business and Globalisation, 18(4), 493-523.
  • Belke, A., & Osowski, T. (2018). International Effects of Euro Area versus US Policy Uncertainty: A FAVAR Approach. RUHR Economic Paper 689, Essen, Germany: University of Duisburg-Essen.
  • Benigno, G., & Fornaro, L. (2014). The financial resource curse. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 116(1), 58-86. Benigno, G., Converse, N., & Fornaro, L. (2015). Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance. Journal of International Money and Finance, 55, 60-87.
  • Bernardini, M., & Peersman, G. (2018). Private Debt Overhang and the Government Spending Multiplier: Evidence for the United States, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 33(4), 485-508.
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Toplam 116 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Havva Nesrin Tiryaki 0000-0002-0083-0827

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2021
Gönderilme Tarihi 6 Nisan 2021
Kabul Tarihi 20 Mayıs 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Tiryaki, H. N. (2021). Türkiye’de Özel Sektöre Sağlanan Kredilerle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: 1998-2020. Bilecik Şeyh Edebali Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(1), 56-70. https://doi.org/10.33905/bseusbed.910446