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LOW-CARBON GREEN GROWTH AND MAIN DETERMINANTS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS: A CASE STUDY FOR TURKEY

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 8, 22 - 41, 01.07.2015

Öz

In this study, the impact of three fundamental CO2 emissions determinants (economic growth, energy consumption, and population) disclosed in Yoichi Kaya decomposition on CO2 emissions has been analyzed for Turkey from 1961 to 2010. For this purpose, the ARDL bounds testing and Johansen-Juselius approaches to cointegration and VECM Granger causality test are used. The results reveal that i) the variables are stationary in their first differences, ii) the series are cointegrated, iii) the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is valid for Turkish economy, iv) there exists a positive link between population growth and CO2 emissions in the long run, v) there exists a long run causality running from all the explanatory variables to CO2 emissions.

Kaynakça

  • Abid, M. (2015). The close relationship between informal economic growth and carbon emissions in Tunisia since 1980: The (ir)relevance of structural breaks, Sustainable Cities and Society, 15, 11–21.
  • Adaman, F., Karalı N., Kumbaroğlu G., Or İ., Özkaynak B. and Zenginobuz, Ü. (2011). What determines urban house holds’ willingness to pay for CO2 emission reductions in Turkey: A contingent valuation survey, Energy Policy, 39, 689-698.
  • Ahmed, K., Shahbaz, M., Qasım, A. and Long W., (2015). The linkages between deforestation, energy and growth for environmental degradation in Pakistan, Ecological Indicators, 49, 95-103.
  • Akbostancı, E., Tunç İ. and Türüt-Aşık, S. (2005). İmalat sanayi ve kirlilik: Bir kirli endüstri sığınağı olarak Türkiye, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 60 (1), 3-28.
  • Akbostancı, E., Türüt-Aşık, S. and Tunç, İ. (2009). The relationship between income and environment in Turkey: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve? Energy Policy, 37, 861-867.
  • Atıcı, C. ve Kurt, F. (2007). Türkiye’nin dış ticareti ve çevre kirliliği: Çevresel Kuznets eğrisi yaklaşımı, Tarım Ekonomisi Dergisi, 13, 61-69.
  • Begum, R. A., Sohag, K., Sharifah, M. S. A. and JAAFAR, M. (2015). CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic and population growth in Malaysia, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 41, pp. 594-601.
  • Brown, R. L., Durbin, J. and M. Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relations over time”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 37, 149-163.
  • Engle, R. F. and W.J. Granger, C.W.J. (1987). Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing, Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
  • Halicioglu, F. (2009). An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey, Energy Policy, 37, 1156-1164.
  • IEA (2014). CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion: Highlights, Internet Addresses: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication /CO2EmissionsFromFuelCombustionHighlights2014.pdf. Date of Access: 19.01.2015.
  • IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  • IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of climate change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P.
  • Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, USA, UK.
  • Johansen, S. and Juselies, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inferences on cointegration, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169- 210.
  • Kim, S. E., Kim, H. and Chae, Y. (2014). A new approach to measuring green growth: Application to the OECD and Korea, Futures, 63, 37-48.
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of Stationarity against the alternative of a unit root”, Journal of Econometrics, 54 (1-3), 159-178.
  • Lise, W. (2006). Decomposition of CO2 emissions over 1980-2003 in Turkey”, Energy Policy, 34, 1841-1852.
  • Nabeya, S. and Tanaka, K. (1988). Asymptotic theory of a test for the constancy of regression coefficients against the random walk alternative, Annals of Statistics, 16, 218-235.
  • Onafowora, O. and Owoye, O. (2014). Bounds testing approach to analysis of the environment Kuznets curve hypothesis, Energy Economics, 44, 47-62.
  • OECD (2008). OECD environmental performance review: Turkey. Internet Addresses:http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/oecd-environmental - performance-reviews-turkey-2008_9789264049161-en. Date of Accesses: 02.02.2015.
  • OECD (2011). Towards Green Growth: Monitoring Progress. Internet Addresses: http://www.oecd.org/greengrowth/48224574.pdf. Date of Accesses: 12.01.2015.
  • Ozturk, I. and Acaravcı, A. (2010). CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14, 3220– 3225.
  • Ozturk, I. and Acaravci, A. (2013). The long-run and causal analysis of energy, growth, openness and financial development on carbon emissions in Turkey, Energy Economics, 36, 262–267.
  • Panopoulou, E. and Pittis, N. (2004). A comparison of autoregressive distributed lag and dynamic OLS cointegration estimators in the case of a serially correlated cointegration error, The Econometrics Journal, 7 (2), 585-617.
  • Pesaran, H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Saatçi, M. ve Dumrul, Y. (2011). Çevre kirliliği ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Çevresel Kuznets eğrisinin Türk ekonomisi için yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme yöntemiyle tahmini, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 37, 65-86.
  • Saboori, B. and Sulaiman, J. (2013). CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries: A cointegration approach, Energy, 55, 813-822.
  • Say, N.P. and Yücel, M. (2006). Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Turkey: Empirical analysis and future projection based on economic growth, Energy Policy, 34, 3870–3876.
  • Shahbaz, M., Ozturk, I., Afza, T. and Ali, A. (2013). Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve in a global economy, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 494-502.
  • Soytas, U. and Sari, R. (2009). Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: Challenges faced by an EU candidate member, Ecological Economics, 68,1667-1675.
  • TURKSTAT (2014). National greenhouse gas inventory report: 1990-2012, Ankara.
  • UNESCAP, ADB and UNEP (2012). Green growth, resources and resilience environmental sustainability in Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok.
  • WB, World Bank (2013). Turkey green growth policy paper: Towards a greener economy, The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, USA.
  • WB, World Bank (2012). Inclusive green growth: The pathway to sustainable development. Internet Accesses: http://siteresources.worldbank.org /EXTSDNET/Resources/Inclusive_Green_Growth_May_2012.pdf. Date of Access: 03.02.2015.
  • WB, World Bank (2014). World Development Indicators, Washington, DC.
  • Yavuz, N.Ç. (2014). CO2 emission, energy consumption, and economic growth for Turkey: Evidence from a cointegration test with a structural break, Energy Sources, Part B, 9, 229-235.

DÜŞÜK KARBONLU YEŞİL BÜYÜME VE KARBONDİOKSİT SALINIMININ TEMEL BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: TÜRKİYE UYGULAMASI

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 8, 22 - 41, 01.07.2015

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Yoichi Kaya ayrıştırmasında ortaya konulan üç temel karbondioksit salınımı belirleyicisinin (ekonomik büyüme, enerji tüketimi ve nüfus) karbondioksit salınımı üzerindeki etkisi Türkiye ekonomisi bağlamında 1961-2010 dönemi için incelenmektedir. Bu amaçla, ARDL sınır testi ve Johansen-Juselius eşbütünleşme yaklaşımları ile VECM Granger nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar değişkenlerin birinci farkında durağan olduğunu, seriler arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını, çevresel Kuznets eğrisi hipotezinin Türkiye ekonomisi için uygunluğunu, nüfus artışı ile karbondioksit salınımı arasında uzun dönemde pozitif bir ilişkiyi ve tüm bağımsız değişkenlerden karbondioksit salınımına doğru bir uzun dönem nedenselliğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Abid, M. (2015). The close relationship between informal economic growth and carbon emissions in Tunisia since 1980: The (ir)relevance of structural breaks, Sustainable Cities and Society, 15, 11–21.
  • Adaman, F., Karalı N., Kumbaroğlu G., Or İ., Özkaynak B. and Zenginobuz, Ü. (2011). What determines urban house holds’ willingness to pay for CO2 emission reductions in Turkey: A contingent valuation survey, Energy Policy, 39, 689-698.
  • Ahmed, K., Shahbaz, M., Qasım, A. and Long W., (2015). The linkages between deforestation, energy and growth for environmental degradation in Pakistan, Ecological Indicators, 49, 95-103.
  • Akbostancı, E., Tunç İ. and Türüt-Aşık, S. (2005). İmalat sanayi ve kirlilik: Bir kirli endüstri sığınağı olarak Türkiye, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 60 (1), 3-28.
  • Akbostancı, E., Türüt-Aşık, S. and Tunç, İ. (2009). The relationship between income and environment in Turkey: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve? Energy Policy, 37, 861-867.
  • Atıcı, C. ve Kurt, F. (2007). Türkiye’nin dış ticareti ve çevre kirliliği: Çevresel Kuznets eğrisi yaklaşımı, Tarım Ekonomisi Dergisi, 13, 61-69.
  • Begum, R. A., Sohag, K., Sharifah, M. S. A. and JAAFAR, M. (2015). CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic and population growth in Malaysia, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 41, pp. 594-601.
  • Brown, R. L., Durbin, J. and M. Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relations over time”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 37, 149-163.
  • Engle, R. F. and W.J. Granger, C.W.J. (1987). Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing, Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
  • Halicioglu, F. (2009). An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey, Energy Policy, 37, 1156-1164.
  • IEA (2014). CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion: Highlights, Internet Addresses: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication /CO2EmissionsFromFuelCombustionHighlights2014.pdf. Date of Access: 19.01.2015.
  • IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  • IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of climate change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P.
  • Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, USA, UK.
  • Johansen, S. and Juselies, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inferences on cointegration, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169- 210.
  • Kim, S. E., Kim, H. and Chae, Y. (2014). A new approach to measuring green growth: Application to the OECD and Korea, Futures, 63, 37-48.
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of Stationarity against the alternative of a unit root”, Journal of Econometrics, 54 (1-3), 159-178.
  • Lise, W. (2006). Decomposition of CO2 emissions over 1980-2003 in Turkey”, Energy Policy, 34, 1841-1852.
  • Nabeya, S. and Tanaka, K. (1988). Asymptotic theory of a test for the constancy of regression coefficients against the random walk alternative, Annals of Statistics, 16, 218-235.
  • Onafowora, O. and Owoye, O. (2014). Bounds testing approach to analysis of the environment Kuznets curve hypothesis, Energy Economics, 44, 47-62.
  • OECD (2008). OECD environmental performance review: Turkey. Internet Addresses:http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/oecd-environmental - performance-reviews-turkey-2008_9789264049161-en. Date of Accesses: 02.02.2015.
  • OECD (2011). Towards Green Growth: Monitoring Progress. Internet Addresses: http://www.oecd.org/greengrowth/48224574.pdf. Date of Accesses: 12.01.2015.
  • Ozturk, I. and Acaravcı, A. (2010). CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14, 3220– 3225.
  • Ozturk, I. and Acaravci, A. (2013). The long-run and causal analysis of energy, growth, openness and financial development on carbon emissions in Turkey, Energy Economics, 36, 262–267.
  • Panopoulou, E. and Pittis, N. (2004). A comparison of autoregressive distributed lag and dynamic OLS cointegration estimators in the case of a serially correlated cointegration error, The Econometrics Journal, 7 (2), 585-617.
  • Pesaran, H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Saatçi, M. ve Dumrul, Y. (2011). Çevre kirliliği ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Çevresel Kuznets eğrisinin Türk ekonomisi için yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme yöntemiyle tahmini, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 37, 65-86.
  • Saboori, B. and Sulaiman, J. (2013). CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries: A cointegration approach, Energy, 55, 813-822.
  • Say, N.P. and Yücel, M. (2006). Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Turkey: Empirical analysis and future projection based on economic growth, Energy Policy, 34, 3870–3876.
  • Shahbaz, M., Ozturk, I., Afza, T. and Ali, A. (2013). Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve in a global economy, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 494-502.
  • Soytas, U. and Sari, R. (2009). Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: Challenges faced by an EU candidate member, Ecological Economics, 68,1667-1675.
  • TURKSTAT (2014). National greenhouse gas inventory report: 1990-2012, Ankara.
  • UNESCAP, ADB and UNEP (2012). Green growth, resources and resilience environmental sustainability in Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok.
  • WB, World Bank (2013). Turkey green growth policy paper: Towards a greener economy, The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, USA.
  • WB, World Bank (2012). Inclusive green growth: The pathway to sustainable development. Internet Accesses: http://siteresources.worldbank.org /EXTSDNET/Resources/Inclusive_Green_Growth_May_2012.pdf. Date of Access: 03.02.2015.
  • WB, World Bank (2014). World Development Indicators, Washington, DC.
  • Yavuz, N.Ç. (2014). CO2 emission, energy consumption, and economic growth for Turkey: Evidence from a cointegration test with a structural break, Energy Sources, Part B, 9, 229-235.
Toplam 37 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Diğer ID JA85PM23ZH
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Fahri Şeker

Murat Çetin

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Temmuz 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2015 Cilt: 4 Sayı: 8

Kaynak Göster

APA Şeker, F., & Çetin, M. (2015). DÜŞÜK KARBONLU YEŞİL BÜYÜME VE KARBONDİOKSİT SALINIMININ TEMEL BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: TÜRKİYE UYGULAMASI. Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(8), 22-41.